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Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka | The Osaka Derby in Numbers

By JPick Data Team Published: April 9, 2026 14:00 JST | Lineup update: April 11, 2026 15:00 JST J1 League Matchday 10 | Panasonic Stadium Suita | Kickoff: Saturday, April 11, 2026 16:00 JST

Gamba Osaka have not beaten Cerezo Osaka at home in any of the last three derbies (0W 0D 3L). That alone makes this one of the most intriguing fixtures of Matchday 10. But dig into the goal-timing data, and a deeper story emerges: Gamba score 69% of their goals in the first half, while Cerezo concede 70% of theirs between the 46th and 75th minute. The structural mismatch is real — the question is whether it can break the jinx.

Three Things to Watch

  • Gamba's home derby curse (0W 3L): Gamba have yet to win an Osaka Derby at Panasonic Stadium in recent history. Can this season's strong form finally flip the script?
  • First-half firepower vs second-half fragility: Gamba's 69% first-half scoring rate meets Cerezo's 70% concession rate in the 46-75 minute window. How these time zones interact defines the shape of this match.
  • Concentrated vs distributed influence: Cerezo rely heavily on Kengo Furuyama (PI: +57), while Gamba spread their impact across five players led by Takeru Kishimoto (+33).

Recent Form

Gamba:  W-W-L-W (4 matches — 3W 0D 1L / 9 pts / 9th)
Cerezo: L-L-W-L-L (5 matches — 1W 0D 4L / 6 pts / 16th)

Postponed fixtures mean different games played. Leaders Kashima Antlers sit on 21 pts.

The Key Battle — Can Gamba Break Their Home Hoodoo?

Gamba's early punch meets Cerezo's second-half collapse

Nine of Gamba's 13 goals this season (69%) have come in the first half — evenly split across the three 15-minute blocks (3 in 0-15, 3 in 16-30, 3 in 31-45). This is a team that attacks from the opening whistle and doesn't wait around.

Cerezo's defensive picture is almost the mirror image. Of their 10 goals conceded, four came in the 46-60 minute window and three in the 61-75 window — that's 70% of all goals against packed into a brutal 30-minute stretch after halftime. Their first half is solid: zero goals conceded in the opening 30 minutes. But something breaks after the interval.

The structural mismatch writes itself. If Gamba grab an early lead — something they're built to do — Cerezo face a second half where their defensive vulnerabilities are most exposed. For Gamba, the blueprint is clear: score early, then let the clock do the work.

But Gamba have a late-game problem of their own

Five of Gamba's 11 goals conceded (45%) have come in the 76-90 minute window. A first-half lead doesn't guarantee safety. This late fragility may well explain those three home derby defeats — leads surrendered, composure lost. Whether Gamba can hold concentration for the full 90 minutes in a high-pressure derby remains the open question.

Their home record this season reads 2W 0D 0L (GF5 GA2) — solid enough. But derbies play by different rules.

Player Impact — Who Swings the Result?

JPick's Player Impact (PI) score measures how much a player's presence changes team performance — the gap in points-per-game when they play versus when they don't.

Cerezo's one-man dependency: Kengo Furuyama (PI: +57)

Cerezo's top four PI contributors tell the story. Furuyama leads at +57 (PPG differential: +0.71), followed by Hayato Okuda (+52, PPG diff: +0.65), Koki Fukui (+51, +0.63), and Satsuki Kamijo (+48, +0.59). Their combined PI reaches 208.

Furuyama's +0.71 PPG differential is striking — with him on the pitch, Cerezo are a fundamentally different team. For a side stuck in 16th, that concentration of influence is both a strength and a vulnerability. Shinnosuke Hatanaka (PI: +35, core member) anchors the defense, and Okuda and Fukui need to be firing, but Cerezo's fate rides disproportionately on one man.

Gamba's collective model: Takeru Kishimoto (+33) and company

Gamba's numbers paint the opposite picture. Kishimoto tops their chart at +33, with Ryoya Yamashita (+27, core member, PPG diff: +0.35), Ryo Hatsuse (+14), Shota Fukuoka (+13, core member), and Welton (+12). The top five total just 99 — less than half of Cerezo's equivalent.

That's not weakness. It's resilience. Gamba don't depend on any single player to win. Hummet leads the scoring charts with 3 goals, Atsushi Meno has chipped in 1, and Takashi Usami remains a factor when he's on the pitch. The goals and the influence come from everywhere.

The derby's central tension sits here: can Cerezo's star-driven model overpower Gamba's collective machine?

JPick app users can explore each player's PI score and goal-timing charts to see when teams score and concede.

Head-to-Head — The Derby Record

| Date | Home | Score | Away | |------|------|-------|------| | 2022-07 | Gamba | 1-2 | Cerezo | | 2022-05 | Cerezo | 3-1 | Gamba | | 2021-08 | Gamba | 0-1 | Cerezo | | 2021-05 | Cerezo | 1-1 | Gamba | | 2020-11 | Cerezo | 1-1 | Gamba | | 2020-07 | Gamba | 1-2 | Cerezo |

From Gamba's perspective: 0W 2D 4L across six meetings. At home: 0W 0D 3L. All three of Cerezo's away wins were decided by a single goal, and each time Gamba either led or equalized before being overtaken. Six games is a limited sample — but the pattern is unmistakable.

What the Data Points To

Gamba's current form (3W 1L in the last four) and home record (2W 0L) are encouraging, but the head-to-head data favors Cerezo. Derbies tend to follow their own logic, and six matches of evidence suggests this one does too.

Table impact scenarios:

  • Gamba win: 12 pts — moves into the top half, closes the gap on leaders Kashima (21 pts)
  • Draw: Gamba 10 pts, Cerezo 7 pts — status quo for both
  • Cerezo win: 9 pts — a lifeline in their fight to escape the lower reaches, and potentially a turning point for their season

Cerezo need more from their attack (7 goals in 6 games). Sakuragawa Solomon (2 goals), Thiago Andradi (1 goal), and Ryota Sakata (1G 2A) carry the offensive burden, with Shinji Kagawa's big-game experience a potential X-factor in the derby atmosphere.

JPick Pro features include table simulation and score probability matrices for every J1 fixture.

⚡ Lineup Confirmed — Preview Updated (April 11, 2026 15:00 JST)

Formations Gamba Osaka: 4-2-3-1 (Head Coach: Jens Wissing) Cerezo Osaka: 4-4-2 (Head Coach: Arthur Papas)

Gamba XI: Higashiguchi — Handa, Miura, Nakatani, Hatsuse — T. Suzuki, Kurata — Yamashita, Nawata, Welton — Hümmet

Cerezo XI: K. Nakamura — Okuda, Inoue, Hatanaka, Ohata — Sakata, Ishiwatari, S. Tanaka, Thiago Andrade — Shibayama, Nakajima

Lineup Analysis: A Massive Blow for Cerezo

The headline news comes from the away dressing room: Kengo Furuyama is entirely missing from the 18-man squad. We flagged how heavily Cerezo rely on his PI score of +57 (+0.71 PPG differential), and his absence fundamentally changes the complexion of this derby. Compounding the problem, Koki Fukui (+51) is also out. For a team already struggling for goals, losing two of their top three difference-makers before a ball is kicked is a serious blow.

Hayato Okuda (+52) and Shinnosuke Hatanaka (+35) are still in the XI, and Satsuki Kamijo (+48) is available off the bench — but the core of Cerezo's individual influence has been gutted.

Gamba have left their highest-impact player, Takeru Kishimoto (+33), on the bench. But because Jens Wissing's side spreads the attacking burden across the squad, they can afford to rotate without losing their shape. Ryoya Yamashita (+27), Ryo Hatsuse (+14), and Welton (+12) all start behind Deniz Hümmet.

Squad Impact

  • 🚨 Kengo Furuyama (PI: +57) out of the squad: The one player Cerezo could least afford to lose is missing entirely. His +0.71 PPG differential is not easily replaced — this was the headline stat from the preview.
  • Koki Fukui (PI: +51) also absent: Two of Cerezo's top three PI contributors gone. Hayato Okuda (+52) becomes the highest-PI starter for the away side.
  • Satsuki Kamijo (PI: +48) on the bench: With Furuyama out, Kamijo is now Arthur Papas' only real trump card. If Cerezo can weather Gamba's first-half pressure, he could change the game after the break.
  • ⚡ Flank warfare: Gamba's right AM Ryoya Yamashita (PI: +27) will test Cerezo's left back Ayumu Ohata — this is where Gamba hold their clearest individual edge. On the opposite flank, Welton (+12) faces Hayato Okuda (+52), a genuine quality contest and the one area where Cerezo still hold an advantage on the day.
  • 🔄 Bench depth: Cerezo have Solomon Sakuragawa (2 goals), Shinji Kagawa, and Kamijo waiting. Gamba can call on Issam Jebali and Kishimoto for late firepower.

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