Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos13th-14th Place Decider, Leg 1 Preview: The Numbers Paint a Contrast Between Win-it-but-Blunt Shimizu and Tanimura-Reliant, Goal-Trading Yokohama FM

WEST 7th Shimizu S-Pulse host EAST 7th Yokohama F. Marinos on May 31 at 14:00 at Shimizu's home ground, IAI Stadium Nihondaira. It is Leg 1 of the decider for overall 13th place. Their season-long team stats form a neat contrast — Shimizu win the ball and defend but lack attacking efficiency, while Yokohama FM win it back with the league's most tackles and trade goals.

Match Information

Three Things to Watch

1. Both sides win the ball well
Shimizu's 10.1 interceptions per game meet Yokohama FM's league-most 291 tackles, head-on in midfield.

2. Their attacking efficiency is opposite
Shimizu (19 goals from 200 shots) or Yokohama FM (28 from 206) — the goals come in completely different ways.

3. The tie turns on the scrap for the ball in midfield
Win it and Shimizu defend tight; win it and Yokohama FM get more quick balls into Tanimura.

① The Numbers in Review — "Win-it-but-Blunt Shimizu" and "Tanimura-Reliant, Goal-Trading Yokohama FM"

Shimizu — Win it in midfield, but cannot finish and brittle when shot at

Shimizu (manager Takayuki Yoshida) are, by the numbers, a "ball-winning defensive" side this season. Their 182 interceptions (10.1 per game) are a high figure, and they also win 958 duels. Their ability to hook the ball in midfield and take control is a genuine weapon for this tie. Possession of 49.4% is close to even — this is not a side skewed toward keeping the ball.

Their weakness is attacking efficiency. From 200 total shots the return is just 19 goals, with 57 on target. An xG of 17.8 and an average xG of 0.99 mean neither the expected nor the actual return matches the shot volume. As their 33% over-2.5 rate shows, Shimizu's matches tend to be low-scoring. Defensively, they are shot at often — 221 shots conceded, 69 on target conceded — with an average xG against of 1.09 and just 3 clean sheets, so even holding firm is not rock-solid. Even so, four wins from eight shootouts topped up their points, leaving them at 24 points / 7th in WEST.

Yokohama FM — Win it back and trade blows, but unsteady at the back

Yokohama F. Marinos (manager Hideo Oshima) are a side that wins the ball back and carries it forward. Their 291 tackles are the most in the league, and a duel win rate of 52.4% edges Shimizu's (48.9%). They are also more incisive in attack than Shimizu — 28 goals from 206 total shots, an xG of 20.6 and an average xG of 1.14, ahead of Shimizu on both goals and expected value. As a 56% over-2.5 rate and 44% BTTS rate show, Yokohama FM's matches move.

Their defense, though, is unstable. With 29 goals against, an average xG against of 1.06, and 3 clean sheets, they have conceded freely in their back-and-forth games. It has been a hard season: manager Hideo Oshima took over mid-season, steadied the side, and brought them to 7th in the East. They have no wins from two shootouts (0 PK wins) and 10 losses in 90 minutes — a thread of fragility in tight finishes — and arrive at Leg 1 on 20 points / 7th in EAST.

The picture is clear. Shimizu "have the ball-winning but cannot finish and are brittle when shot at"; Yokohama FM "win it back and trade blows, but their defense is unsteady and a fragility in tight games lingers." Leg 1 is where these contrasting profiles meet head-on, starting in the scrap for the ball in midfield.

② The Men Who Move the Numbers — Shimizu's Se-hun Oh and Yutaka Yoshida, Yokohama FM's Kaina Tanimura

What the team stats reveal about each side's flaw and strength leads straight to "who moves the game."

Shimizu — A rare cutting edge in Oh, a ball-winning spine in midfield

In a Shimizu side short on goals, the man who has carried the attacking numbers is FW Se-hun Oh. His 7 goals and 1 assist are the team's most, a rare cutting edge in an attack that produced just 19 goals from 200 shots. He is a Target Man — a hold-up focal forward who holds the ball up front to give a side few attacking routes a focal point. The player who has moved Shimizu's numbers at both ends is full-back Yutaka Yoshida — JPick's Player Impact (how a team's goal pace shifts when a player is on the field) puts him at +44, the highest at Shimizu, and he contributes on the sheet too with 1 goal and 3 assists. Up front the pivot is FW Koya Kitagawa (2 goals, 1 assist). And Shimizu's "win it in midfield" profile rests on a pair in the middle: PI-core Matheus Bueno (PI +33) is a Metronome who dictates the tempo with accurate passing, while Zento Uno (PI +25) is a Ball-Winner who recovers possession anywhere — the two who embody Shimizu's 10.1-interceptions-per-game ball-winning in midfield.

※ Player Impact is only a relative measure of influence within a team; it does not directly indicate strength against a specific opponent. Here it serves as a guide to "which players have moved their team's numbers."

Yokohama FM — Tanimura carries the goals, Amano creates, a high-PI back line holds

Yokohama FM's attack is funneled clearly through one man. FW Kaina Tanimura is the focal point with 9 goals and 2 assists this season, and his PI of +51 is high too. He is a Poacher — a few-touch finisher — the thick pillar of an attack that scored 28. Delivering the chances to him is MF Jun Amano (4 goals, 4 assists), an Advanced Playmaker who both scores and creates as the team's chance-creating hub — the designer who feeds Tanimura's poacher finish. Sealing the league-leading tackle count at the back is DF Ryotaro Tsunoda (PI +53, core, the highest figure in this tie). The back line also features Jeisson Quiñónes (DF, PI +47, core) and Ren Kato (DF, PI +42, core), a sign that Yokohama FM's defense is built around several high-PI defenders.

③ The Heart of the Matchup — Where Each Side's Path to Victory Lies

Both sides win the ball well, but their attacking profiles are opposite — what each side must do to win is written clearly in their numbers.

Shimizu's path — Win it in midfield, avoid the shootout, finish low-scoring

Shimizu's biggest weapon is the midfield ball-winning — 182 interceptions (10.1 per game), 958 duels won — but their weakness is the open game: they concede 221 shots and return just 19 goals from 200. So Shimizu want to keep the match low-scoring. Their midfield ball-winning is driven by Bueno (PI +33), the tempo-setting Metronome, and Uno (PI +25), the ball-snapping Ball-Winner. If those two keep hooking Yokohama FM's build-up at the second-ball stage, they cut down the number of exchanges themselves — the shortest route to neutralizing their own "shot-at" structure (221 conceded) by simply not letting opponents shoot. Then, through their few attacking routes, Oh (7 goals) as a Target Man holds the ball up front while Kitagawa and Yoshida (1 goal, 3 assists) push forward — and Shimizu have a structure to win tight on few chances. Come away from Leg 1 with few goals against, and Leg 2 becomes far easier.

Yokohama FM's path — Win it back, get it quickly to Tanimura, drag it into an open trade

Yokohama FM's strength is winning it back with the league-most 291 tackles and the thrust to carry it forward — 28 goals from 206 shots. If Shimizu want a low score, Yokohama FM want the opposite: a game that moves. Recovering second balls with their league-leading tackle count, and feeding the ball quickly from creative hub Amano (4 goals, 4 assists), an Advanced Playmaker, to Tanimura (9 goals, PI +51), a Poacher, is the route to breaking Shimizu's tight midfield "without taking it on head-on." Win it and go vertical fast, and they can create chances before Shimizu set their midfield. But Yokohama FM have cracks too: 29 conceded, 10 losses in 90 minutes, and no wins in two shootouts mean the defense and the finish are unsteady, and with goals concentrated in Tanimura, if Shimizu's Tsunoda (PI +53) erases him, the thick pillar of their attack suddenly thins. Whether Amano and others can share the scoring is the condition for making the open trade work.

The decider — The scrap for the ball in midfield

Both paths cross at a single point. If Shimizu win it in midfield, they can avoid the open trade and keep it low-scoring; if Yokohama FM out-win the recoveries, they can feed Tanimura fast and make the game move. Whether Bueno and Uno's ball-winning outpaces Yokohama FM's thrust, or Yokohama FM's tackling outpaces Shimizu's possession — that midfield contest decides which profile the match tilts toward: "win-and-defend Shimizu" or "win-and-trade-blows Yokohama FM."

The Bottom Line

This 13th-14th place decider may sit level and unglamorous in the table, but it is a meeting of two sides with a similar strength and opposite weaknesses. Both Shimizu and Yokohama FM win the ball well — Shimizu with 10.1 interceptions per game, Yokohama FM with the league's most tackles (291). But the face they show afterward differs. Shimizu are the type that cannot finish 200 shots into more than 19 goals and dig in on defense; Yokohama FM are the type that chases 28 goals at the cost of 29 conceded.

Shimizu's path is clear: control midfield through Bueno's Metronome and Uno's Ball-Winner to hook Yokohama FM's thrust, shut down their "shot-at" structure of 221 conceded by not letting opponents shoot, and let Oh's Target Man hold-up play settle the few chances into a low score. Yokohama FM's path is the mirror image: win it back with their league-most 291 tackles and feed Amano's Advanced Playmaker craft to Tanimura's Poacher finish to make the game move — provided their high-PI defenders around Tsunoda can hold up a Tanimura-dependent structure carrying cracks of 29 conceded and zero shootout wins.

What Leg 1 asks is whether each side can hold its own season-long numbers for 90 minutes. Does Shimizu win it in midfield and avoid the open trade, or does Yokohama FM out-win the recoveries and feed Tanimura fast? More than the scoreline itself, the question is this — which side controls the scrap for the ball, and toward which profile does the match tilt: "win-and-defend Shimizu" or "win-and-trade-blows Yokohama FM"? The next chapter of a story both sides have been writing all season unfolds at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

⚡ Confirmed Lineups — Preview Update Following Team Sheet Release

Both team sheets are in. Here's how they line up against the preview framework.

Shimizu S-Pulse (4-3-3)

Bench: Yuya Oki / Sodai Hasukawa / Kengo Kitazume / Sen Takagi / Capixaba / Motoki Nishihara / Rinsei Ohata / Toshiki Takahashi / Koya Kitagawa

Yokohama F. Marinos (4-2-3-1)

Bench: Hiroki Iikura / Kanta Sekitomi / Kosei Suwama / Takuto Kimura / Aruto Higuchi / Jordy Croux / George Onaiwu / Tevis / Dean David

Preview update

Shimizu have gone with 4-3-3 rather than the expected 4-2-3-1. Key men Se-hun Oh (#9) and Matheus Bueno (#10) are both starting, keeping the preview's attacking and midfield focus intact. Notable, though, is that Zento Uno — highlighted as the Ball-Winner in this preview — is not in the 18-man squad; Yudai Shimamoto (#47) takes the third midfield slot instead. With Yutaka Yoshida (#28) at right-back and three forwards stretching the width, Shimizu's shape is different on paper but carries the same midfield ball-winning DNA.

Yokohama FM line up exactly as expected in 4-2-3-1. Every key man named in the preview — Kaina Tanimura (#9), Jun Amano (#40), Ryotaro Tsunoda (#22), Jeisson Quiñónes (#17), and Ren Kato (#2) — is in the XI. Their defensive spine is unchanged, and the league-leading tackle machine is fully loaded.

Data Sources

• Standings / points / goal difference / goals for / goals against: J League official figures through Round 18; the centenary-stats-r17.ts override is the SoT (aligned with PR #163 / PR #164). The Centenary format has no draws, and points = 90-min win ×3 + PK win ×2 + PK loss ×1
• Team stats (possession, shots, passes, interceptions, tackles, duels, xG, etc.): team_season_stats (season 2026, 18-game aggregate)
• Expected formations: aggregated from fixture_lineups.formation across the 2026 season. For Yokohama FM, formation was not recorded in some matches, so the 4-2-3-1 recorded in their latest game (R18, May 24) is offered cautiously as the expected setup
• Goals / assists: player_season_stats (season 2026)
• Player Impact (PI): JPick's proprietary metric, player_impact_scores (season 2026, confidence high only). A measure of influence within a team, not of strength against a specific opponent
• Playoff rules: J League official article #33954 (announced 2026-05-24)