Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-PulseJ1 Round 12 PreviewJ1's Top xG Metrics Host the League's Leakiest Backline

By JPick Data Team Written: 22 October 2026 J1 Matchday 12 | Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima | Saturday, 24 October 2026 — 5:00 AM UTC kick-off

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (3rd, 23 pts) lead J1 in both xG and xGA and have conceded just two goals at home across five matches. They host Shimizu S-Pulse (11th, 14 pts) at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima — a side that carries the worst xGA in the league. Two players who left Hiroshima for Shimizu on 1 July 2026, Kosuke Kinoshita and Ryo Germain, make their first return to the ground where they previously played. Both clubs are also on two days' rest following their Round 11 results.

Key Takeaways

1. J1's best and worst xGA meet head-on
Hiroshima lead J1 in xG average (2.4, 1st of 20) and xGA average (0.8, 1st of 20). Shimizu rank last in xGA (1.7, 20th of 20). Hiroshima's home record stands at W4 D1 L0, 16 goals for, two against. (→ ①)

2. Kinoshita and Germain return to their former ground
Both transferred from Hiroshima to Shimizu on 1 July 2026. They know Hiroshima's defensive shape from the inside — whether that knowledge translates into decisive moments against their former club is the human storyline of this fixture. (→ ②)

3. Two days' rest for both sides after heavy defeats
Hiroshima lost 0–4 away to V-Varen Nagasaki; Shimizu lost 0–5 at home to FC Machida Zelvia — both in Round 11 on 21 October. Over their last five, Shimizu's non-penalty goals (7) exceeded npxG (4.94) by more than two, but goals conceded (9) also exceeded npxGA (6.57). (→ ③)

① Hiroshima's Fortress — J1's Best xG Metrics Await Shimizu

Hiroshima's 26-27 season numbers sit at the top of J1 across the key metrics. xG average 2.4 and xGA average 0.8 both rank first among the 20 clubs, while possession (62.1%) and chances created (16.4 per game) lead the league by the same margin. Those metrics convert directly into their home record: 16 goals and two conceded across five matches.

Their underlying non-penalty GD (+15.5) also exceeds the actual recorded figure (+13), which means their fundamentals point to a level of quality even above the current third-place standing.

Akito Suzuki (FW) leads the attack. His playstyle profile ranks second in J1 among strikers and he has scored eight goals in 11 appearances — seven of those non-penalty, against a npxG of 5.4. Sho Sasaki (DF, Ball-Playing CB, J1 3rd) drives build-up from deep; Shunki Higashi (DF, Chance Creator, J1 1st) provides the left-side outlet that turns possession into clear looks on goal.

② Reunion Fixture — Kinoshita and Germain Face Their Former Club

Kosuke Kinoshita and Ryo Germain joined Shimizu S-Pulse from Sanfrecce Hiroshima on 1 July 2026. This is their first fixture back at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima.

The numbers around them, however, reflect the broader picture of a Shimizu attack that has underperformed. Germain has played 11 matches this season and is yet to score, with a npxG of 2.0. Se-hun Oh (FW), Shimizu's central striker, has one non-penalty goal from a npxG of 2.7 across 10 appearances. Shimizu's overall non-penalty GD (-7) sits almost exactly on their underlying expected figure (-7.0), leaving little reason to expect a sudden outperformance of the xG numbers.

Tomoya Fujii (MF, Dribbler, J1 1st) is Shimizu's standout individual by playstyle ranking and has the ability to create separation in one-on-one situations. Hiroshima's duel win rate ranks second in J1 at 52.5%, so how much space Fujii finds will shape how competitive Shimizu's attack looks.

In head-to-head history at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima hold a favourable record: W3 D2 L0. The most recent three meetings, however, show Hiroshima without a win (D2 L1), a reminder that the data gap does not always determine the final score.

③ Back-to-Back Fixtures — Fatigue and Real Quality on Two Days' Rest

Round 11 on 21 October produced heavy defeats for both clubs. Hiroshima conceded four away to V-Varen Nagasaki; Shimizu conceded five at home to FC Machida Zelvia. Both clubs arrive at this fixture on two days' rest, making rotation decisions and fitness management a significant variable.

Over Hiroshima's last five matches (MD7–MD11), non-penalty goals for (10) tracked closely against npxG (11.09), and goals conceded (5) tracked against npxGA (4.21) — the data reads as consistent performance in both phases. The Round 11 loss looks like an isolated away result, not a sign of a deeper slump.

Shimizu's last five show the opposite pattern: non-penalty goals (7) significantly exceeded npxG (4.94), yet goals conceded (9) also exceeded npxGA (6.57). Their Round 11 five-goal loss pulled those numbers sharply in one direction. The attack outperforming expected goals while the defence underperforms expected goals against is an unstable combination that puts Shimizu's results at high variance.

The score probability matrix and per-player advanced stats are available in the JPick app.

Outlook

The structural gap between these two clubs in xG metrics is as wide as any J1 fixture this round. Hiroshima's home record and J1-leading fundamentals put the weight of probability firmly on one side. The variables that could tighten things are Shimizu's two former Hiroshima players bringing inside knowledge to the opposition, the recent pattern of Shimizu outscoring their xG, and the fatigue carried by both squads.

Whether any of those variables shift the picture is what makes the 90 minutes worth watching alongside the data.