Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa FukuokaJ1 Round 7 2026-27 Preview

By JPick Data Team Published: 9 September 2026 J1 Round 7 | Iwagin Stadium | Saturday, 12 September 2026 — 18:30 kick-off (local)

Both clubs arrive at Round 7 level on four points, separated only by goal difference in the relegation zone. Shimizu S-Pulse sit 17th, Avispa Fukuoka 16th. The same points total conceals a stark divergence in analytical profile.

Shimizu have converted just 27% of their non-penalty expected goals in six rounds — 7.3 npxG created, two non-penalty goals scored. Their defence gives up chances at the highest rate in J1 by expected goals allowed (xGA average 2.1). Fukuoka, by contrast, rank fifth in J1 for defensive xGA (1.1 per game) and win 52.8% of their duels (third in J1). Yet they carry the worst luck gap in the division at −3.4: an underlying position that their data suggests should be positive has been dragged deep below zero by defensive over-concession.

Key Takeaways

• Shimizu's npxG conversion stands at 27% — six rounds, 7.3 npxG, two goals scored. Se-hun Oh has accumulated 2.0 npxG in five appearances without a non-penalty goal; Ryo Germain adds 0.9 npxG across six with none converted
• Fukuoka's luck gap is −3.4 — J1's largest negative divergence. Their underlying npxGD sits at +1.4, but nine non-penalty goals conceded from 6.5 xGA against has driven actual results well below expectations. The attack is converting (7 np goals from 7.8 npxg); the defence is not holding
• Shimizu are unbeaten at Iwagin Stadium against Fukuoka across four J1 fixtures (2W–2D–0L). The last three meetings across all venues ended level

Recent Form

Shimizu S-Pulse (2026-27 season, Rounds 1–6) L L L D L (W = win, D = draw, L = loss — oldest left to most recent right) 6 matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses — 4 points (17th in J1)

Avispa Fukuoka (2026-27 season, Rounds 1–6) W L L L D (W = win, D = draw, L = loss — oldest left to most recent right) 6 matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses — 4 points (16th in J1)

Shimizu head into this match on a four-match winless run. Fukuoka opened with a win before a run of three consecutive defeats; a draw in Round 6 halted that slide.

① Shimizu S-Pulse — Scoring Struggles Despite Generating Chances

Shimizu's npxG average of 1.4 per game (10th in J1) reflects a team that reaches meaningful positions. Their shot volume (10.5 per game) and chances created (7.8 per game, 17th in J1) are not the primary problem. The problem is what happens next: two non-penalty goals from 7.3 npxG across six matches, a conversion rate of 27%.

The player data sharpens the picture. Se-hun Oh — the summer signing from Machida Zelvia who operates as a target man — has accumulated 2.0 npxG in five appearances without converting a single non-penalty chance. That figure accounts for 27% of Shimizu's total npxG. Germain, another summer addition from Sanfrecce Hiroshima, carries 0.9 npxG across six matches without a goal. Kosuke Kinoshita (1.3 npxG, one goal) and Koya Kitagawa (1.1 npxG, one goal) are converting closer to expectation — but their combined output cannot compensate for the rest of the attack.

Possession average stands at 38.7% (20th in J1) and duel win rate at 47.3% (18th). Shimizu's formation — a 4-3-3 — is not generating territorial dominance. The defence has conceded six non-penalty goals against an npxGA of 12.6, which means it has outperformed its underlying numbers. Regardless, an xGA average of 2.1 (20th in J1) flags deep structural issues at the back. Du-jae Won has been absent since February with a shoulder injury — 35 matches missed — leaving the defensive structure without a key figure.

② Avispa Fukuoka — Strong Defensive Foundations Masked by Bad Luck

Fukuoka's xGA average of 1.1 per game (5th in J1) means they are not conceding high-quality chances. A duel win rate of 52.8% (3rd in J1) and 11.7 chances created per game (7th) suggest a side with the tools to compete in the middle third of the table.

The disparity between underlying numbers and actual results is the central feature of Fukuoka's season. Non-penalty goals conceded: 9. Non-penalty xGA: 6.5. The deficit — 2.5 non-penalty goals above expectation — accounts for the bulk of their −3.4 luck gap. An underlying npxGD of +1.4 has been converted into an actual non-penalty goal difference of −2.

The attack tells a different story. Fukuoka have scored seven non-penalty goals from 7.8 npxG — a conversion rate close to expectation. Shu Morooka leads with three non-penalty goals from 1.8 npxG across six appearances, scoring at nearly double the rate his chances would project. Werik Popó, the summer addition from Bragantino, has one non-penalty goal from 0.7 npxG. Keiya Shiihashi, who joined from Nagoya Grampus in the summer window, carries 0.7 npxG with no goals but contributes to the defensive structure that the advanced numbers suggest should be firmer. Kazuki Fukushima has been out since May with a meniscus injury — 13 matches missed, still sidelined.

Head-to-Head

All-time record (J1): Shimizu S-Pulse 3 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss across eight matches.

At Iwagin Stadium (Shimizu's home ground): 2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses for Shimizu. The 2026 matches were played under Centenary League rules — both ended 1–1 after 90 minutes with the result decided by penalty kicks. Shimizu's last home league win over Fukuoka came in April 2025 (3–1).

Match Outlook

A win for either side moves them to seven points and a chance to climb clear of the relegation zone. A draw keeps both on five points and leaves the situation unchanged. For two teams with identical records but contrasting analytical profiles, this fixture tests which underlying reality asserts itself.

Shimizu's path to three points runs through their conversion problem. Fukuoka's xGA suggests the defensive structure should limit the damage from Shimizu's attack — but nine non-penalty goals conceded from 6.5 xGA means that structure has not held this season. If Shimizu's attack shows any improvement in finishing, Fukuoka's defensive numbers give them reason to be concerned.

Fukuoka's path to three points runs through maintaining their defensive level at its underlying quality. Shimizu's attack creates chances — 7.3 npxG across six rounds — and if Fukuoka concede at rates their xGA suggests they should not, those chances will arrive. Morooka's form with three goals from 1.8 npxG is unlikely to continue at that rate indefinitely; Fukuoka's goal return depends on whether others can contribute.

The three-match draw streak at this fixture and Shimizu's unbeaten home record against Fukuoka (J1) provide the context for what the data sets up as an even contest — one where the underlying numbers favour neither side by a wide margin.

⚡ Confirmed Lineups — Preview Update Following Team Sheet Release

The team sheets are in. Both managers have made their selections for this relegation six-pointer at Iwagin Stadium.

Shimizu S-Pulse XI

Substitutes (9): Yuya Oki, Du-jae Won, Capixaba, Seung-wook Park, Kosuke Kinoshita, Kai Matsuzaki, Yutaka Yoshida, Tomoya Fujii, Sen Takagi

Five changes from Round 6. Ryo Germain, Togo Umeda, Hidehiro Sugai and Yudai Shimamoto each bring seven consecutive starts to the line-up; Masaki Yumiba makes it five in a row, and Yuji Takahashi earns his third successive start. Se-hun Oh and Mateus Brunetti — both rested to the bench last round — return to the XI, joined by Yuki Honda, who was not in the matchday squad in Round 6. Kenta Inoue and Kazuki Kozuka are handed their first starts of the season.

Tomoya Fujii (five starts this season), Kosuke Kinoshita, Yutaka Yoshida and Kai Matsuzaki drop to the bench. Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi is not in the matchday squad.

Avispa Fukuoka XI

Substitutes (9): Takumi Nagaishi, Takumi Kamijima, Shintaro Nago, Yuma Tsujioka, Hiroki Akino, Oriol Romeu, Yuji Kitajima, Abdul Hanan Sani Brown, Kaoru Yamawaki

Four changes from Round 6. Masato Shigemi and Tomoya Miki continue seven-match starting streaks; Yu Hashimoto and Shu Morooka each bring six consecutive starts. Werik Popó and Daiki Fukazawa are named for the second successive match. Yota Maejima, Keiya Shiihashi and Daiki Miya step up from last round's bench, while Yuma Obata earns a first start of the season — absent from every matchday squad across Rounds 1 to 6.

Yuma Tsujioka, who had started all six league matches to this point, drops to the bench. Teppei Oka — also a starter in every round this season — is not in the squad. Kokoro Maeda and Kazuki Fujita are also absent from the matchday squad.