Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka | J1 Round 7 2026-27 Preview
By JPick Data Team Published: 9 September 2026 J1 Round 7 | Iwagin Stadium | Saturday, 12 September 2026 — 18:30 kick-off (local)
Both clubs arrive at Round 7 level on four points, separated only by goal difference in the relegation zone. Shimizu S-Pulse sit 17th, Avispa Fukuoka 16th. The same points total conceals a stark divergence in analytical profile.
Shimizu have converted just 27% of their non-penalty expected goals in six rounds — 7.3 npxG created, two non-penalty goals scored. Their defence gives up chances at the highest rate in J1 by expected goals allowed (xGA average 2.1). Fukuoka, by contrast, rank fifth in J1 for defensive xGA (1.1 per game) and win 52.8% of their duels (third in J1). Yet they carry the worst luck gap in the division at −3.4: an underlying position that their data suggests should be positive has been dragged deep below zero by defensive over-concession.
Key Takeaways
- Shimizu's npxG conversion stands at 27% — six rounds, 7.3 npxG, two goals scored. Se-hun Oh has accumulated 2.0 npxG in five appearances without a non-penalty goal; Ryo Germain adds 0.9 npxG across six with none converted
- Fukuoka's luck gap is −3.4 — J1's largest negative divergence. Their underlying npxGD sits at +1.4, but nine non-penalty goals conceded from 6.5 xGA against has driven actual results well below expectations. The attack is converting (7 np goals from 7.8 npxg); the defence is not holding
- Shimizu are unbeaten at Iwagin Stadium against Fukuoka across four J1 fixtures (2W–2D–0L). The last three meetings across all venues ended level
Recent Form
Shimizu S-Pulse (2026-27 season, Rounds 1–6) L L L D L (W = win, D = draw, L = loss — oldest left to most recent right) 6 matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses — 4 points (17th in J1)
Avispa Fukuoka (2026-27 season, Rounds 1–6) W L L L D (W = win, D = draw, L = loss — oldest left to most recent right) 6 matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses — 4 points (16th in J1)
Shimizu head into this match on a four-match winless run. Fukuoka opened with a win before a run of three consecutive defeats; a draw in Round 6 halted that slide.
① Shimizu S-Pulse — Scoring Struggles Despite Generating Chances
Shimizu's npxG average of 1.4 per game (10th in J1) reflects a team that reaches meaningful positions. Their shot volume (10.5 per game) and chances created (7.8 per game, 17th in J1) are not the primary problem. The problem is what happens next: two non-penalty goals from 7.3 npxG across six matches, a conversion rate of 27%.
The player data sharpens the picture. Se-hun Oh — the summer signing from Machida Zelvia who operates as a target man — has accumulated 2.0 npxG in five appearances without converting a single non-penalty chance. That figure accounts for 27% of Shimizu's total npxG. Germain, another summer addition from Sanfrecce Hiroshima, carries 0.9 npxG across six matches without a goal. Kosuke Kinoshita (1.3 npxG, one goal) and Koya Kitagawa (1.1 npxG, one goal) are converting closer to expectation — but their combined output cannot compensate for the rest of the attack.
Possession average stands at 38.7% (20th in J1) and duel win rate at 47.3% (18th). Shimizu's formation — a 4-3-3 — is not generating territorial dominance. The defence has conceded six non-penalty goals against an npxGA of 12.6, which means it has outperformed its underlying numbers. Regardless, an xGA average of 2.1 (20th in J1) flags deep structural issues at the back. Du-jae Won has been absent since February with a shoulder injury — 35 matches missed — leaving the defensive structure without a key figure.
② Avispa Fukuoka — Strong Defensive Foundations Masked by Bad Luck
Fukuoka's xGA average of 1.1 per game (5th in J1) means they are not conceding high-quality chances. A duel win rate of 52.8% (3rd in J1) and 11.7 chances created per game (7th) suggest a side with the tools to compete in the middle third of the table.
The disparity between underlying numbers and actual results is the central feature of Fukuoka's season. Non-penalty goals conceded: 9. Non-penalty xGA: 6.5. The deficit — 2.5 non-penalty goals above expectation — accounts for the bulk of their −3.4 luck gap. An underlying npxGD of +1.4 has been converted into an actual non-penalty goal difference of −2.
The attack tells a different story. Fukuoka have scored seven non-penalty goals from 7.8 npxG — a conversion rate close to expectation. Shu Morooka leads with three non-penalty goals from 1.8 npxG across six appearances, scoring at nearly double the rate his chances would project. Werik Popó, the summer addition from Bragantino, has one non-penalty goal from 0.7 npxG. Keiya Shiihashi, who joined from Nagoya Grampus in the summer window, carries 0.7 npxG with no goals but contributes to the defensive structure that the advanced numbers suggest should be firmer. Kazuki Fukushima has been out since May with a meniscus injury — 13 matches missed, still sidelined.
Head-to-Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 1–1 (PEN) | Avispa Fukuoka |
| 2026-03-18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 1–1 (PEN) | Shimizu S-Pulse |
| 2025-08-23 | Avispa Fukuoka | 0–0 | Shimizu S-Pulse |
| 2025-04-20 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 3–1 | Avispa Fukuoka |
All-time record (J1): Shimizu S-Pulse 3 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss across eight matches.
At Iwagin Stadium (Shimizu's home ground): 2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses for Shimizu. The 2026 matches were played under Centenary League rules — both ended 1–1 after 90 minutes with the result decided by penalty kicks. Shimizu's last home league win over Fukuoka came in April 2025 (3–1).
Match Outlook
A win for either side moves them to seven points and a chance to climb clear of the relegation zone. A draw keeps both on five points and leaves the situation unchanged. For two teams with identical records but contrasting analytical profiles, this fixture tests which underlying reality asserts itself.
Shimizu's path to three points runs through their conversion problem. Fukuoka's xGA suggests the defensive structure should limit the damage from Shimizu's attack — but nine non-penalty goals conceded from 6.5 xGA means that structure has not held this season. If Shimizu's attack shows any improvement in finishing, Fukuoka's defensive numbers give them reason to be concerned.
Fukuoka's path to three points runs through maintaining their defensive level at its underlying quality. Shimizu's attack creates chances — 7.3 npxG across six rounds — and if Fukuoka concede at rates their xGA suggests they should not, those chances will arrive. Morooka's form with three goals from 1.8 npxG is unlikely to continue at that rate indefinitely; Fukuoka's goal return depends on whether others can contribute.
The three-match draw streak at this fixture and Shimizu's unbeaten home record against Fukuoka (J1) provide the context for what the data sets up as an even contest — one where the underlying numbers favour neither side by a wide margin.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. Why has Shimizu's conversion rate fallen so low? Shimizu average 10.5 shots per game but only 3.3 on target, with a conversion rate of 27%. The principal underperformers are Se-hun Oh (2.0 npxG, zero non-penalty goals) and Ryo Germain (0.9 npxG, zero goals). Both structural and finishing factors appear to be at work across a six-match sample.
Q. What explains Fukuoka's poor results despite strong underlying numbers? Fukuoka rank fifth in J1 for xGA average (1.1) yet have conceded nine non-penalty goals from 6.5 xGA against — 2.5 above expectation. Their attack is converting at the expected rate (7 non-penalty goals from 7.8 npxG). The divergence sits almost entirely on the defensive side: opponents have converted low-quality chances at an unusually high rate over six rounds.
Q. What is Shimizu's home record against Fukuoka? Across four J1 fixtures at Iwagin Stadium, Shimizu have two wins and two draws — Fukuoka have not won on this ground. The most recent home meeting (May 2026, Centenary League) ended 1–1 after 90 minutes. The most recent home J1 win for Shimizu in this fixture came in April 2025 (3–1).
