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Kashima Antlers vs Urawa Reds | J1 Matchday 11 — Can Urawa Strike First Against the League's Best Defense?

By JPick Data Team Published: April 18, 2026 10:00 JST J1 League Matchday 11 | Mercari Stadium | Kickoff: Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00 JST

Kashima haven't lost all season. Eight games, eight wins, 24 points at the top — and at home they've conceded just one goal in five matches. Yet Urawa, sitting ninth and having lost three straight, carry a number worth paying attention to: 33% of their season goals have come inside the opening 15 minutes. In a match where whoever scores first wins (both sides are 100% when they open the scoring), that particular statistic matters more than the standings gap might suggest.

Three Things to Know

  • Kashima's home record: 5 wins, 1 goal conceded in 5 home games this season. Every time they've scored first, they've won (4 from 4)
  • Urawa's early punch: 5 of their 15 season goals (33%) have come in the opening 15 minutes. However, they've conceded in all three of their last matches
  • First goal, final result: Both teams have won 100% of games in which they scored first. The opening goal is likely to settle this one

Recent Form

Kashima Antlers: W-W-W-W-W (5W-0D-0L, last five) Urawa Reds: L-L-L-W-L (1W-0D-4L, last five)

Kashima are six points clear of second-place Kobe (18pts), unbeaten in all eight league games this season. Urawa have dropped three straight and sit ninth. The form gap is glaring, but a closer look at the goal-timing metrics reveals a specific tactical window Urawa can exploit.

Kashima vs Urawa: The 15-Minute Tactical Window

JPick's season aggregate data shows Kashima's 18 goals are clustered in two distinct windows: 31-45 minutes (27.8%, 5 goals) and 76-90 minutes (33.3%, 6 goals). They tend to break through late in halves rather than punching early.

Urawa's 15 goals, by contrast, are split between 0-15 minutes (33.3%, 5 goals) and 46-60 minutes (33.3%, 5 goals) — right at the start and immediately after the break. These are exactly the moments when pressing structures haven't yet settled.

Kashima have conceded just once at home this season. Looking at their broader season aggregate (all 5 conceded goals), 31-45 minutes accounts for 40% of those concessions. If Urawa are going to find a way through, the data points toward exploiting the transition before that defensive peak — i.e., the opening quarter of the game.

The First-Goal Equation

| Metric | Kashima | Urawa | |--------|---------|-------| | Win rate when scoring first | 4/4 (100%) | 2/2 (100%) | | Times conceded first (home) | 0 | — | | Home goals conceded | 1 (5 games) | — | | Goals in 0-15 min (season %) | — | 33% (5 of 15) |

Both teams' unbeaten records when scoring first make this unusually binary. Kashima's ability to suppress that first goal — and Urawa's ability to produce one early — is the actual contest here.

Players to Watch — Who Decides This Game?

Kashima: Kyosuke Tagawa (FW) — JPick's Player Impact Score: +70 (highest on the squad). When Tagawa is on the pitch, Kashima average a perfect 3.00 PPG. Without him? That drops to 1.89. The gap of 0.85 points is the largest on the team. Alongside Yuma Suzuki and Léo Ceará (four goals each this season), Tagawa's involvement changes the texture of Kashima's attack in ways the raw scoring numbers don't fully capture.

Defensive edge: Ikuma Sekigawa (DF) — Edge Score: 40 (🎯 X_FACTOR). Sekigawa is reading the game exceptionally well right now. JPick's data flags a recent surge in his interception numbers, making him the ideal first line of resistance against Urawa's early, vertical transitions.

Urawa: Hirokazu Ishihara (DF) — PI: +53 (team high). Ishihara's presence lifts Urawa's PPG from 1.00 to 1.77 — a 77% improvement. For a defender, that's a striking number. He functions as a build-up anchor and Urawa's defensive spine.

Urawa's attacking catalyst: Matheus Sávio (MF) — PI: +49 (per JPick data). With Sávio, Urawa average 1.84 PPG; without him, 1.17. If anyone is going to produce one of those opening-15 goals, Sávio's movement in transition makes him the most likely candidate.

📱 In the JPick app, you can track Kyosuke Tagawa's full Player Impact breakdown (+70 PI) and compare Ishihara's on/off splits in real time.

Head-to-Head — Urawa's Recent Struggles in Ibaraki

| Date | Home | Score | Away | |------|------|-------|------| | Sep 3, 2022 | Kashima | 2-2 | Urawa | | May 21, 2022 | Urawa | 1-1 | Kashima | | Nov 7, 2021 | Kashima | 1-0 | Urawa | | Apr 3, 2021 | Urawa | 2-1 | Kashima | | Nov 29, 2020 | Kashima | 4-0 | Urawa | | Jul 12, 2020 | Urawa | 1-0 | Kashima |

Overall (Kashima perspective): 6 matches — 2W 2D 2L (even) At Kashima's ground: 3 matches — Kashima 2W 1D 0L

The overall H2H in recent years is dead level, but Urawa have found trips to Mercari Stadium miserable lately, failing to win any of their last three visits (0W 1D 2L). They've shown they can grind out draws against Kashima, but a win here has proven elusive.

How the Standings Move

| Scenario | Kashima | Urawa | |---------|---------|-------| | Kashima win | 27pts (1st) | 9pts (9th) | | Draw | 25pts (1st) | 10pts (8th) | | Urawa win | 24pts (1st) | 12pts (7th) |

The underlying statistics strongly favor Kashima — unbeaten all season, one goal conceded at home, perfect record when scoring first. But the H2H is historically even, and Urawa's habit of scoring in the opening 15 minutes sets up a fascinating tactical clash, especially since neither side has dropped points from a winning position this year. The opening quarter is where this match will be decided.

For Kashima: a win means nine straight and tightening the grip on first place. For Urawa: a win breaks the three-game losing streak and lifts them into the top half. Both outcomes carry real weight.

📱 JPick Pro includes full standings simulation scenarios and HT/FT pattern breakdowns for both sides. Check how the table looks in each outcome before kickoff.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. When and where is Kashima vs Urawa (J1 Matchday 11)? A. Kickoff is Saturday, April 18, 2026 at 14:00 JST at Mercari Stadium in Kashima, Ibaraki Prefecture.

Q. What is Kashima Antlers' record this season? A. As of Matchday 11 (after 10 rounds), Kashima are unbeaten in all eight league games played, sitting top of J1 with 24 points — six ahead of second-place Kobe. At home, they've conceded just one goal across five matches.

Q. What is Urawa Reds' form going into this game? A. Urawa are ninth with 9 points from 7 games (3W-0D-4L) and have lost their last three matches. However, 33% of their season goals have come in the opening 15 minutes, making their early pressure a key variable.

Q. What is JPick's Player Impact Score (PI)? A. Player Impact Score (PI) is JPick's proprietary metric that compares a team's performance (points per game and expected goal difference) when a player is on and off the pitch. Scores range from -100 to +100, quantifying each player's individual contribution to team results.

Q. What does the Kashima vs Urawa head-to-head record show? A. Across six meetings in JPick's database (2020–2022), the all-time record is level: Kashima 2W 2D 2L. At Kashima's home ground specifically, Urawa have failed to win in their last three visits (0W 1D 2L).

Data note: All statistics in this article are sourced from JPick's proprietary database. Team stats reflect season aggregate figures; Player Impact Scores draw on multi-season historical data. H2H records cover league matches from 2020–2022 only.

⚡ Confirmed Lineups — Preview Update Following Team Sheet Release

Formations

  • Kashima: 4-4-2 (Manager: Toru Oniki)
  • Urawa: 4-2-3-1 (Manager: Maciej Skorza)

How the Preview's Key Themes Hold Up

The player we flagged as decisive — Kosuke Tagawa starts, pairing with Leo Ceara up front. Kashima's attacking axis is on the pitch from kickoff. Meanwhile, Ikuma Sekikawa (highlighted in our preview with his Edge Score) is out of the squad. The center-back pairing is Kim Tae-hyun and Naomichi Ueda, preserving the home defensive block that has conceded just one goal in five matches.

On Urawa's side, both Hironori Ishihara (DF) and Mateus Savio (MF) start. The players who embody the "33% of goals in the opening 15 minutes" pattern called out in our preview are all on the pitch, giving Urawa the personnel to deliver early pressure.

The Matchup to Watch

Kashima's 4-4-2 meets Urawa's 4-2-3-1. Kashima right-back Kimihito Kono's overlapping runs will clash with Urawa's left-side combination of Ryoma Watanabe and Mateus Savio. Whether Urawa can activate the vertical opening-15-minute attack we flagged in the preview depends largely on how this wing battle plays out.

Squad Impact — What JPick Data Tells Us

  • Kashima's core intact: Tagawa and Leo Ceara up front, Ueda and Kim Tae-hyun at the back — Kashima's attacking and defensive spine is all in place for their home unbeaten run
  • Urawa's opening-pressure unit: Ishihara, Mateus Savio, and Takuro Kaneko all start. The personnel behind the 33% opening-15-minute scoring pattern are on the field
  • 🔄 Bench depth: Kashima have Cavric, Ryotaro Araki, and Shuki Morooka in reserve — plenty of attacking options. Urawa keep Terin and Junpei Hayakawa back, giving them gear-change choices whether they lead or trail

Compare full lineup strength and Player Impact data for all players on the JPick app

Data & Analysis: JPick — Your J-League data companion.