Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-PulseJ1 Round 13 PreviewxG Data Exposes Defensive Vulnerabilities on Both Sides

By JPick Data Team
Published: 29 October 2026
J1 Round 13 | SANGA STADIUM by KYOCERA | Saturday, 31 October 2026 — 14:00 kick-off (local)

Kyoto Sanga (16th, 10 pts) host Shimizu S-Pulse (13th, 14 pts) in Round 13 of the 26-27 season. Kyoto have yet to keep a clean sheet in any of their twelve J1 games, while Shimizu carry an xG gap — the gap between actual goal difference and what their underlying expected goals data suggests — that has ballooned to one of the largest in the league (−2.8). Both sides are mired in defensive trouble, separated by just four points. Starting line-ups will not be confirmed until match day.

Three Things to Watch

1. Kyoto have conceded in every league game — suspension makes it worse today
Kyoto's average xGA of 1.70 ranks 19th (out of 20 teams) in J1. For this match, Kyo Sato is serving a suspension from accumulated yellow cards, adding further pressure to a defence that has not kept a clean sheet all season. (→ ①)

2. Shimizu's defensive numbers are worse than they first appear — last five games conceding 1.6× npxG
Shimizu's xGA is worst in J1 (20th). Their last five games produced 13 goals conceded against an npxG of just 8.02, a gap of 4.98. (→ ②)

3. J1's 2nd-ranked Striker vs J1's 3rd-ranked Dribbler — individual quality decides the match
Rafael Elias for Kyoto and Tomoya Fujii for Shimizu represent their clubs' clearest attacking edge — whichever player performs sets the direction of the result. (→ ③)

① Kyoto's Defence — Conceding in All Twelve League Games

Kyoto Sanga have not kept a single clean sheet through twelve J1 matches in the 26-27 season. Their average xGA of 1.70 (19th in J1) confirms this is a structural issue rather than a run of bad luck. The data shows a clear time-of-game pattern: 34.8% of goals conceded (8 goals) have come in the 61–75 minute window alone, suggesting fitness or tactical issues in the second half.

Going into this match, Kyoto are already without three players. Kyo Sato (k-sato-351532) is suspended from 26 October. Mizuki Saito (m-saito-33148) has been sidelined since 17 August with an ACL injury, and Ko Sakai (ko-sakai-sm38213240) has been out since 18 April.

Midfield anchor João Pedro (joao-pedro-270984) holds the league's top Ball-Winner playstyle ranking in J1 — the squad's best defensive disruptor — yet the twelve-game conceding run has not broken.

Kyoto's attack: Rafael Elias carries the load

Despite the defensive trouble, Kyoto's attack functions around Rafael Elias (J1 2nd-ranked Striker type — the penalty-box finisher). In 10 appearances he has scored 5 goals from an npxG of 4.4, accounting for one-third of Kyoto's 15 total league goals. Haruki Arai (h-arai-325727) has added 4 goals from an npxG of 2.5 across all 12 matches.

Note also that Kyoto played their previous match on 27 October — just three days before this fixture. Shimizu last played on 24 October, giving them seven days of rest. The fitness gap between the two sides is real.

② Shimizu's Defensive Collapse — Conceding 1.6× Their npxG in Last Five Games

Shimizu S-Pulse have the worst defensive expected goals (xGA) in J1, averaging 1.74 per game (20th out of 20). But the season-total xG gap of −2.8 tells an even sharper story: their actual results have been 2.8 points worse than their underlying numbers suggest.

The last five games have been stark. Against Sanfrecce Hiroshima (24 October), Shimizu conceded four goals from an npxG of 1.73. Against FC Machida Zelvia (21 October), they conceded five from 3.45. Across the last five matches as a whole, 13 goals conceded against an npxG of 8.02 puts the defensive shortfall at +4.98.

The attacking paradox — worst conversion rate, yet recent over-performance

Shimizu's season-long conversion rate of 8% is the lowest in J1 (20th). Over the full season, their npxG of 12.78 has produced only 9 np goals — a gap of −3.78. Yet their last five games tell the opposite story: 6 goals scored from just 3.86 npxG, clearly above expectation.

Oh Se-hun (joined July, 11 appearances) has managed just 1 np goal from an npxG of 2.70. Germain Ryo (12 appearances) has no goals from 2.30 npxG — two leading attackers who have yet to convert their opportunities at the rate the expected goals data suggests they should.

③ Rafael Elias vs Tomoya Fujii — Two Standout Individuals Shape the Match

Both squads' playstyle rankings converge on a straightforward head-to-head: Kyoto's scorer against Shimizu's creator.

Kyoto's attacking threat: Rafael Elias (J1 2nd Striker type)

Rafael Elias ranks 2nd in J1 in the Striker playstyle (penalty-box finisher, top 10%) in the 26-27 season. A match rating of 7.3 and five goals from ten appearances underline consistent performance. With Shimizu conceding in five consecutive league games, the conditions are set for Elias to add to that tally.

Shimizu's key threat: Tomoya Fujii (J1 3rd Dribbler type)

Tomoya Fujii ranks 3rd in J1 in the Dribbler playstyle (1v1 disruptor, top 7%) in the 26-27 season — Shimizu's only top-percentile playstyle standout. Shimizu's average possession of 40.7% is worst in J1, meaning Fujii often has to create from limited ball time. If he can win space on the flank, he can generate localised advantages. Kyoto's duel-win rate of 49.8% is mid-table, and their ability to contain Fujii's carries will be a key factor.

As a footnote, Shimizu's squad includes Taiki Hirato (t-hirato-33076), who transferred from Kyoto to Shimizu on 16 September 2026 and now faces his former club.

Recent Form — Last Five Matches (○ = win · △ = draw · ● = loss)

Kyoto Sanga: △ △ ● ● ○ (most recent first)
Two-match unbeaten run in J1, but conceding in all twelve league games this season.

Shimizu S-Pulse: ● ● △ ○ ○ (most recent first)
Two consecutive J1 losses. Conceding in five consecutive league games.

Head-to-Head

All-time record (Kyoto perspective): 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses (last 6 matches)

(The two 2026 matches were played in the Centenary League. "1–1 (pen.)" = 90-minute draw decided by penalty shootout.)

At SANGA STADIUM by KYOCERA specifically, Kyoto's record over three meetings stands at zero wins, one draw, two losses — an unfavourable home record against this opponent. Shimizu have won three of the last four encounters overall.

Data Outlook

A Shimizu win here would lift them to 10th (17 pts); a Kyoto victory takes them to 14th (13 pts). For both sides, this is a meaningful contest in a tightly-packed lower half of the table.

One structural backdrop worth noting: Kyoto's matches have seen three or more total goals in 75% of fixtures this season — the highest rate in J1. With Shimizu's defence currently giving away goals at a rate well above their xGA, the data points toward a high-scoring game.

Score probability matrices and detailed team metrics are available in the app. All statistics from the JPick Database (26-27 season, through Round 12).

Conclusion

The defensive data is damning for both sides, but the story takes a different shape at each end. Kyoto have been structurally conceding all season — and they head into this fixture without Kyo Sato, adding another gap in the backline. Their saving grace is Rafael Elias, a finisher who has converted at or above his expected output and now faces the league's worst defence by xGA.

Shimizu's problem is wider. Their xG gap of −2.8 reflects both ends: shots not going in at the rate the numbers say they should, and goals being conceded at a rate that goes beyond what even their xGA suggests. Tomoya Fujii remains the one outlet capable of bypassing those trends with individual quality.

The head-to-head leans Shimizu's way — Kyoto have not won this fixture at home in their last three attempts. Whether Kyoto's home attack and Elias's efficiency can overturn that pattern is the central question going into Saturday.