Machida Zelvia vs Avispa FukuokaJ1 Matchday 10 Preview
By JPick Data Team
Published: 14 October 2026
J1 League Matchday 10 | Machida GION Stadium | Sunday, 18 October 2026 — 16:00 kick-off (local)
Machida Zelvia (3rd, 20 pts) have scored in all nine of their J1 league games this season, with an 18.6% conversion rate that leads the entire division. A win here would lift them to 23 points — above current leaders Kashiwa Reysol (21 pts) into sole first place. Avispa Fukuoka (17th, 7 pts) have conceded in every league fixture of the 26-27 season, yet their last five games tell a subtler story: seven goals conceded against an npxGA of 9.3, outperforming their expected goals against by 2.3. The last two meetings at Machida GION ended 0–0. Whether Machida's finishing efficiency can finally break that goalless pattern is the central question on Sunday.
| Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Rank (after MD9) | 3rd | 17th |
| Points | 20 | 7 |
| Record | 6W-2D-1L | 2W-1D-6L |
| Goals for | 22 | 11 |
| Goals against | 10 | 13 |
| Goal difference | +12 | −2 |
| Recent form | W W D L W | L D L L W |
| Home record | 2W-1D-1L | 2W-1D-3L |
| Away record | 4W-1D-0L | 0W-0D-3L |
📅 Sunday, 18 October 2026 — 16:00 kick-off (local) | Machida GION Stadium
Three Things to Watch
- 18.6% conversion rate — J1's best — Machida have scored in all nine league games, averaging 2.4 goals per game. A home win sends them top (→ ①)
- Kohei Tani's J1-leading Ball-Playing Keeper rating, Yuki Soma's J1 2nd-ranked Chance Creator profile — top-percentile playstyles underpin Machida's attacking output (→ ②)
- Fukuoka have conceded in 7 straight league games, but recent defensive metrics show improvement — the dual reading of the data matters here (→ ③)
① J1's Best Conversion Rate — 9 Straight League Games Scored and a Shot at the Top
The defining number for Machida this 26-27 season is 18.6%. Their shot conversion rate leads J1 across all 20 clubs — the foundation of 22 goals from nine league appearances, averaging 2.4 per game.
The summer transfer window reshaped the attack. Koki Ogawa, signed from NEC Nijmegen on 24 August 2026, has posted three goals in six appearances with an npxG of 2.9 — a slight overperformance. Tete Yengi, who arrived from Livingston on 14 July 2026, has added two goals in nine games alongside Takuma Nishimura (nine appearances, two goals, npxG 2.0). Multiple contributors sustain the conversion rate across the squad.
Goal timing is a telling detail. Machida have scored 31.82% of their season goals between the 76th and 90th minutes — a late-game surge that reflects how the team maintains attacking intensity into the closing stages. Season-long npxG (non-penalty expected goals — a shot-quality measure independent of finishing luck) stands at 15.06 against 22 np goals: a positive finishing gap of +5.94. In their last five league games, that gap narrows — nine np goals against 7.33 npxG — indicating the underlying form is stable rather than reliant on exceptional finishing.
Hokuto Shimoda serves a red-card suspension from 5 October 2026 and will be absent.
A Machida win delivers 23 points, overtaking Kashiwa Reysol (21 pts) for sole first place.
② Kohei Tani's J1-Leading Ball-Playing Keeper Rating and Midfield Control
Behind the scoring numbers sits a structural story. Tani's Ball-Playing Keeper index ranks first in J1 (top 8%), anchoring Machida's build-up through a 3-4-2-1 system where the goalkeeper acts as an active participant in possession phases. Soma's Chance Creator rating places him second in J1 (top 9%), converting that build-up into final-third opportunities.
The midfield support is backed by data. Machida's duel win rate is 53.6% (J1 2nd) — they win roughly half their contested balls regardless of whether they are in or out of possession. Combined with an average xG of 1.7 (J1 4th), this is a team that creates quality chances and protects structural possession simultaneously.
Their possession share sits at 49.1% (J1 11th) — above average but not dominant by J1 standards. What stands out instead is the shot profile: 13.1 attempts per game, 4.9 on target, and a 18.6% conversion rate that ties it all together. Machida are not a territory team; they are an efficiency team.
③ Fukuoka's 7-Game League Conceding Streak and the Recent Defensive Shift
Avispa Fukuoka have conceded in all nine league games of the 26-27 season. The seven-game conceding run is consistent with a 17th-place standing on seven points.
Look at the last five games alone, though, and a different signal emerges. Fukuoka conceded seven goals against an npxGA of 9.3 — outperforming the expected goals against by 2.3. Over the full season, their actual non-penalty goals conceded also tracks below their seasonal npxGA, pointing to either improved defensive execution or a period of opponents converting below expectation.
The attacking side remains limited. Fukuoka average 1.0 xG per game (J1 16th) and hold possession only 40.4% of the time — the lowest share in J1. Shusei Morooka, who joined from Kashima Antlers on 1 July 2026, leads their scoring with three goals in nine games (npxG 2.3), but there is limited depth behind him.
Personnel constraints add context. Takumi Kamijima is suspended following a red card from 5 October 2026. Kazuki Fukushima has been out with a meniscus injury since 17 May 2026, a long-term absence that has spanned the entire 26-27 season so far.
The last two meetings at Machida GION Stadium — 22 June 2024 and 18 October 2025 — both finished 0–0. Fukuoka's ability to keep the scoresheet blank at this ground is the quiet counter-narrative to Machida's division-leading conversion rate.
The score probability matrix and detailed match metrics are available in the app.
Conclusion
Two data points frame the match.
Machida carry J1's best conversion rate at 18.6% and have scored in every league game this season. Yet their season-long finishing gap of +5.94 non-penalty goals above npxG means a portion of those goals came from finishing above expectation. Fukuoka, meanwhile, have conceded in all nine games, but their recent five-match defensive metrics show they are conceding 2.3 fewer goals than their npxGA would predict.
The last two fixtures at Machida GION ended goalless. Machida's record of scoring 31.82% of their goals in the 76th–90th minute window means that if the game stays tight into the closing stages — as it has done twice at this venue — their late-game efficiency becomes the factor most likely to break the deadlock.
