Mito vs HiroshimaJ1 Round 13Crisis Hosts League Leaders
By JPick Data Team
Published: 28 October 2026
26-27 season J1 Round 13 | MITO SHINKIN BANK STADIUM | Saturday, 31 October 2026 - 05:00 UTC
On 26 October, Mito Hollyhock announced the dismissal of their manager; no successor has been named. 17th-place Mito Hollyhock, carrying seven sidelined players, host 3rd-place Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who top J1 in every major attacking and defensive metric. A Hiroshima win lifts them to first place.
Three Things to Watch
- Mito's coaching vacancy (announced 26 Oct) coincides with seven absences, including FW Arata Watanabe (out since 26 Sept) and FW Kotaro Uchino (out since 11 Oct). Their season xG average of 0.9 ranks last in J1 (20th of 20). (→ ①)
- Hiroshima average 2.3 xG per game (J1 1st), concede just 0.7 xG per game (J1 1st), hold 61.8% possession (J1 1st), and create 16.1 chances per game (J1 1st). FW Akito Suzuki has scored 9 goals with np goals exceeding npxG by +2.5. (→ ②)
- Mito have conceded 13 goals in their last five league games against an npxGA of 9.32 — 3.68 above expected. They have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 12 league games this season. (→ ③)
① Mito — A Coaching Void and Seven Absences
| Stat (26-27 season, through Round 12) | Mito | Hiroshima | J1 rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG avg per game | 0.9 | 2.3 | Mito 20th / Hiroshima 1st |
| xGA avg per game | 1.7 | 0.7 | Mito 17th / Hiroshima 1st |
| Possession avg | 43.6% | 61.8% | Mito 16th / Hiroshima 1st |
| Chances created per game | 8.1 | 16.1 | Mito 18th / Hiroshima 1st |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 7 | — |
xG (expected goals) = goals a team would be expected to score based on the quality and position of their shots. Source: JPick Database (26-27 season, through Round 12)
As of Round 13, Mito have seven players unavailable. FW Arata Watanabe has been sidelined since 26 September with a medial knee ligament tear; he scored five goals in eight appearances before the injury. FW Kotaro Uchino has been out since 11 October with a hamstring injury. Together the two players accounted for six goals this season, despite a combined npxG of roughly 2.2 — they were outperforming their underlying numbers significantly before being unavailable.
Further unavailable are DF Akinari Kawazura (out since 4 Oct) and Kazuma Okamoto (out since 15 Oct), both mid-season signings now sidelined.
The season-wide numbers reflect the wider difficulties. Mito average 0.9 xG per game — last in J1 (20th of 20). They create just 8.1 chances per game (18th) and average 43.6% possession (16th). In 12 league games they have not kept a single clean sheet, and their last five league results are all defeats.
Taishi Semba — Facing His Former Club
MF Taishi Semba joined Mito from Sanfrecce Hiroshima on 1 July 2026. Round 13 is his reunion with the away side.
② Hiroshima — Four-Metric Dominance and Akito Suzuki's Finishing
Hiroshima's numbers in the 26-27 J1 season are consistent across every key measure. They average 2.3 xG per game (J1 1st), concede just 0.7 xG per game (J1 1st), hold 61.8% possession (J1 1st), and create 16.1 chances per game (J1 1st). That alignment across attack, defence and control points to a structural advantage rather than a run of fortunate results.
The season xG gap (actual non-PK goal difference +17 vs underlying npxGD +17.3) confirms that picture: at −0.34, Hiroshima's results are almost exactly what their underlying numbers project.
Akito Suzuki and a Multi-Dimensional Attack
FW Akito Suzuki leads the attack with nine goals in twelve appearances. His np goals of eight exceed his npxG of 5.5 by +2.5, marking him as one of the most clinical finishers in J1 this season. DF Shunki Higashi ranks 1st in J1 as a Chance Creator (top 1%) in the current season's playstyle metrics, providing the delivery platform from wide positions. DF Hayato Araki ranks 3rd in J1 as an Aerial Dominator (top 7%), adding aerial authority.
Hiroshima carry two injuries of their own. Taichi Yamasaki has been out since 26 August with a cruciate ligament injury; the other unavailable player has been sidelined since November 2024 and has no appearances this season. Impact on the first team is limited.
A Hiroshima win brings them to 29 points, surpassing 1st-place Machida (27 pts) and 2nd-place FC Tokyo (27 pts) to go top of J1.
③ Data Outlook
The numbers from Mito's last five league games are stark: 13 goals conceded against an npxGA of 9.32, a gap of +3.68. Over the full season their xGA average is 1.7 (17th in J1) and they have conceded 22 goals in 12 games — with zero clean sheets.
Hiroshima's away record (W3 D1 L2) is less dominant than their home form (W5 D1 L0), and Mito's home goals conceded (8) is lower than their away tally (14), which at least offers some context for the venue.
The data gap between the two sides is nonetheless substantial. For Mito to find a path, they would need to maintain a compact defensive structure for 90 minutes — limiting the space Chance Creator Shunki Higashi exploits from wide — and convert a rare counter-attacking chance. That would require the clean sheet they have yet to achieve all season.
For Hiroshima, this fixture carries weight beyond three points: a win moves them top of J1 in the 26-27 season. Score probability matrix and full playstyle breakdowns for both sides are available in the app.
