Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F·MarinosJ1 Matchday 12 PreviewxG gap +5.6 shielding Yokohama FM's defence, Nagoya 0-4 when conceding first

By JPick Data Team Published: 22 October 2026 26-27 season Matchday 12 | Toyota Stadium | Sunday, 25 October 2026 — 05:00 kick-off (UTC)

Nagoya Grampus (J1 12th, 13 pts) hold 57.3% possession (3rd in J1) yet have conceded in every one of their 11 league matches — zero clean sheets. The four times they conceded first, they lost every single one (0W-0D-4L). Yokohama F·Marinos (J1 9th, 17 pts) show an underlying npxGD (non-penalty expected goal difference) of -1.6, but their actual goal difference sits at +4 — an xG gap of +5.6 built almost entirely on a defence that has allowed far fewer goals than expected (npxG against 14.9 vs np goals conceded 10). Six clean sheets underline that defensive solidity. At Toyota Stadium — where Nagoya lead the head-to-head 4W-1D-1L — the first goal looks set to be decisive.

Three Things to Watch

1. Yokohama FM's underlying npxGD is -1.6 but their actual goal difference is +4 — a season-wide xG gap of +5.6 driven by a defence that has conceded 4.9 goals fewer than npxG would predict
npxG against 14.9, np goals conceded 10. Over the last five matches both attack and defence have tracked closer to expected values, meaning the gap accumulated mainly in the first half of the season and has not widened recently. (→ ①)

2. Nagoya's 57.3% possession rate ranks 3rd in J1, but their 8.8% conversion rate ranks 14th — and they have not kept a clean sheet in 11 league games. Their xG gap of -1.9 reflects goals scored falling well short of np chances created
Underlying npxGD -2.1, actual non-penalty GD -4. Attacking underperformance relative to npxG (-2.5 excluding own goals) is the main drag on results. (→ ②)

3. A stark first-goal asymmetry: Nagoya are 0W-0D-4L when they concede first; Yokohama FM are 3W-2D-0L when they score first. The first goal has effectively decided every one of those matches
If Yokohama FM score first, they are unbeaten (3-2-0). If Nagoya concede first, they have not taken a single point (0-0-4). Whoever opens the scoring holds a near-decisive advantage. (→ ③)

① Yokohama FM's xG gap — six clean sheets built on a defence that outperforms its xG

Yokohama F·Marinos sit 9th after Matchday 11 (17 pts, 4W-5D-2L). Their recent form reads D-W-D-D-D and they have gone seven league matches without defeat.

The key number is the gap between underlying value and actual results. Underlying npxGD (non-penalty expected goal difference, which strips out penalties to measure a team's true chance quality) stands at -1.6 — a shade in the red — but actual goal difference is +4, giving a season-wide xG gap of +5.6.

The main driver is the defence. npxG against is 14.9; np goals conceded is 10. That is 4.9 goals fewer than expected — and six clean sheets are the most visible expression of it. On the attacking end, np goals (14) slightly exceed npxG (13.3), a modest positive contribution, but the defence is the clear foundation of the side this season.

In style-of-play analysis, Jason Quiñones (DF) ranks 1st in J1 as a sweeper type (top 3%). The main scoring threat is Kaina Tanimura (FW, 6 goals, npxG 3.3), with Jun Amano (MF, npxG 1.6) contributing from midfield. Summer signing Kei Chinen (from Kashima Antlers) adds to the attacking options. Shin Miidera (MF) has been out since 29 September with a concussion.

Over the last five matches, np goals (5) came in slightly under npxG (6.7), while np goals conceded (3) remained below npxG against (4.95) — the defensive pattern from the season as a whole is holding.

② Nagoya's structural contradiction — third in possession, zero clean sheets

Nagoya sit 12th after Matchday 11 (13 pts, 4W-1D-6L). Recent form reads L-L-W-W-D — three league matches without defeat (2W-1D) after a difficult spell.

The season-wide data tells a conflicted story. Possession of 57.3% is third in J1, but a conversion rate of 8.8% ranks 14th. Underlying npxGD is -2.1 against an actual non-penalty GD of -4; the xG gap of -1.9 shows that results have been marginally worse than the underlying numbers would suggest, with attacking output (np goals minus npxG excluding own goals: -2.5) as the main drag.

Defensively, Nagoya have conceded in all 11 league matches — zero clean sheets. Their xGA average of 1.4 ranks 10th in J1, which looks solid on paper, but the four times they conceded first they went 0W-0D-4L with no comebacks from a half-time deficit.

In style-of-play analysis, Hiroya Fujii (DF) ranks 1st in J1 as a ball-hunter type (top 2%). Tomoki Takamine (DF, summer arrival from Consadole Sapporo) ranks 3rd in J1 as a link-forward type (top 7%), providing the transition from defence into attack. Katsuhiro Nakayama (MF) ranks 8th in J1 as a crosser type (top 6%). In attack, Yudai Kimura (FW, 2 goals) and Yuya Yamagishi (FW, 2 goals) lead the scoring charts. Yuya Asano (MF) has been sidelined since 6 September, and Marcus Vinicius (FW) has been out since March.

Over the last five matches, np goals (6) and npxG (5.61) are closely aligned, as are np goals conceded (5) and npxG against (4.72) — recent form has tracked expected values well on both ends.

③ The first-goal asymmetry — Nagoya 0-0-4, Yokohama FM 3-2-0

The sharpest contrast in this fixture is what happens after the opening goal.

Nagoya have conceded first in four matches this season and lost every one (0W-0D-4L). They have not overturned a half-time deficit once.

Yokohama FM have scored first in five matches and gone unbeaten each time (3W-2D-0L). Holding that lead has been the backbone of their seven-match unbeaten run in the league.

The three most recent meetings between the sides:

At Toyota Stadium the all-time record favours Nagoya: 4W-1D-1L. The overall head-to-head (12 matches) is level at 5W-2D-5L, but Nagoya's home form against Yokohama FM is a clear edge.

Nagoya's route to three points runs through an early goal. Fujii winning the midfield battle and Kimura or Yamagishi converting chances at the rate their npxG implies would set up a lead-and-hold scenario.

For Yokohama FM, the path is the same: score first. Tanimura (6 goals) is the most likely source. If Yokohama FM can add a Toyota Stadium win to their 3-2-0 scoring-first record, the defence — which has kept goals well below expected value all season — will need to hold a lead on unfamiliar ground.

Data Outlook

The gap in underlying quality is small. Underlying npxGD: Nagoya -2.1, Yokohama FM -1.6 — roughly half a goal per match. On that basis the match is close to even. What tips the balance significantly is the first-goal asymmetry: whichever side scores first has the cleaner record on either side of that event than almost any other team in J1 this season.

The full score probability matrix and style-of-play breakdowns are available in the app.

Data source: JPick Database (26-27 season, through Matchday 11, 22 October 2026)