Seventh-Place Decider Leg 2: Can Kawasaki's Possession Break Hiroshima's High-Press Back Three?

By JPick Data Team Published: June 5, 2026, 18:00 Meiji Yasuda J1 League (Centenary League) Seventh-Place Decider Leg 2 | Todoroki Athletics Stadium | Saturday, June 6, 2026, 19:00 kickoff JST

The first leg finished Hiroshima 2-1 Kawasaki. But in one line: Kawasaki had the ball, Hiroshima had the game. Kawasaki held 54% possession yet were out-shot 10-18 and out-shot-on-target 3-7, conceding twice inside the first 20 minutes. Why did the side with the ball lose, and the side without it win? Trailing by one, Kawasaki need a two-goal win at home (a one-goal win sends it to extra time, then penalties). A look at each side's flaws and strengths through the first leg.

Match Information

1. First-Leg Review: Why the Side With the Ball Lost

Going in, the edge was Hiroshima's. On points, Hiroshima (30, West 4th) sat above Kawasaki (28, East 4th), and the venue was Hiroshima's. By the table, a slight Hiroshima edge made sense.

And the match went further their way — but not by holding the ball. Kawasaki had 54% possession; Hiroshima had the shots, 18 to 10, on target 7 to 3, and the corners, 5 to 2. Hiroshima pressed high to hook Kawasaki's build-up, won the ball, and struck in a few touches — dominating without possession. This is the familiar look of the back three carried from Petrovic through Skibbe to Gaul as a high press. Sota Nakamura (rated 8.3) opened the scoring on 11 minutes, and Mutsuki Kato added a second on 20. Hiroshima were 2-0 up early.

Kawasaki, for all their possession, rarely threatened the goal: just 3 of their 10 shots were on target. Unlike the title-winning possession side under Oniki, today's Kawasaki under Hasebe have become a pragmatic team that does not insist on the ball, and they lack the edge to cut sides open when handed possession. Still, on 43 minutes Tatsuya Ito (rated 7.2) pulled one back with an individual moment — a real positive. But the comeback stopped there. The gap between a Kawasaki that holds but cannot strike and a Hiroshima that strikes without holding showed up in the 2-1 scoreline.

2. Flaws and Strengths: Kawasaki's Stall, Hiroshima's Back Three in Numbers

Kawasaki's flaw was that their creative core was snuffed out by Hiroshima's high press. Their highest PI, +49, Yuki Yamamoto (the tempo-setting Metronome, 8th in J1) was absent in the first leg. Their other hub Yasuto Wakizaka (PI +46) could not turn, rated 6.2 with 2 of 7 duels, and the overlapping outlet Sota Miura (Attacking Full-Back, 10th in J1) sank to 6.3. Across the season Kawasaki's press intensity and verticality (directness) are among J1's lowest: they keep the ball but neither win it high nor strike fast — the worst profile for a side that needs to chase two goals.

But Kawasaki's strength was getting one back through individual quality even while pinned. Midfielder Sota Kawahara was their best performer in the first leg at 7.3. His Edge Score, a measure of recent form, is 65 (X-Factor level) — the most in-form piece Kawasaki have right now. Kento Tachibanada (Metronome, 5th in J1) keeps the ball circulating, and Ito, who scored in the first leg, brings a spark. If Yamamoto returns for the second leg, the quality of their possession rises another level.

Hiroshima's strength shows clearly in the numbers of that back three. The outlet is Shunki Higashi, whose creativity metric Advanced Playmaker (z=1.40) ranks 3rd in J1. The drive of both wing-backs is the lifeblood: Naoto Arai, an end-to-end Box-to-Box ranked 3rd in J1, supplied 3 key passes from the full width in the first leg. In midfield Tolgay Arslan, their highest PI at +63, controls the middle, while at the back Kim Ju-Sung (Edge Score 49, X-Factor level) wins his one-on-ones. Up front, Nakamura is among the league's most in-form on momentum, and Akito Suzuki leads the press and gives the front line a reference point. Hiroshima's weakness is that high line and the space behind their advanced wing-backs — but as the first leg showed, Kawasaki lack the vertical sharpness to attack it quickly.

Note: Player Impact (PI) reflects a player's relative influence within their own team, not a direct measure of strength against the opponent.

3. The Bottom Line: Can Kawasaki Convert Possession, or Hiroshima Keep the Back Three Working?

This tie comes down to how the first leg's pattern — a Kawasaki that holds, a Hiroshima that dominates without the ball — tips in the second.

Kawasaki's question is whether they can turn their possession into goals. They need two. The keys: beat Hiroshima's high press through Tachibanada and (if fit) Yamamoto, get Miura into the space behind the advanced wing-backs, and use the momentum of Kawahara and Ito to pull one back early. But Kawasaki are not a vertical side. So the dividing line is whether, roared on at home, they can pin Hiroshima back from the off and seize control before the visitors settle. Start slowly and they get drawn into Hiroshima's streetwise game management.

Hiroshima's question is the reverse: can they keep the back-three high press that worked in the first leg running for another 90 minutes? Higashi as the outlet, Arai's wing-back drive, Arslan's grip on midfield, Kim Ju-Sung's duels, and the finishing of Nakamura and Kato — keep this shape, and when Kawasaki commit bodies forward chasing two goals, a single strike on the turnover settles it. Sit, absorb, and keep the back three functioning: for Hiroshima, that is the way to see it out. Whether Kawasaki convert possession into a result, or Hiroshima hold their shape and survive — that tug-of-war decides 7th place.

⚡ Confirmed Lineups — Preview Update Following Team Sheet Release

Both XIs are in — and the formations match the preview exactly. But Kawasaki have a real problem: Yuki Yamamoto is not even on the bench. We wrote "if Yamamoto returns for the second leg, possession quality rises another level." He's absent entirely. Chasing two goals at home, Kawasaki will have to unlock Hiroshima's high press without their key tempo-setter.

Kawasaki Frontale (4-2-3-1)

Substitutes: Yuki Hayasaka / Svend Brodersen / Ryota Kamihashi / Hiroto Noda / Filip Uremović / Kota Yui / Toya Myogan / Ten Miyagi / Kazuya Konno

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (3-4-2-1)

Substitutes: Yudai Tanaka / Takaaki Shichi / Daiki Suga / Yusuke Chajima / Motoki Ohara / Naoki Maeda / Ryo Germain / Shun Ayukawa / Kosuke Kinoshita

What the Lineups Change

Kawasaki: Yamamoto out of the squad entirely — harder than forecast The Tachibanada–Kawahara double pivot will hold structure, but the team's ball-progressing metronome is gone. Wakizaka, Ito, and Marcinho now carry the full creative load of breaking Hiroshima's press. Marcinho starting on the left adds direct running, but the mid-game problem-solver Kawasaki counted on most is unavailable. Two goals with this hand is a steep ask.

Hiroshima: Unchanged — the first-leg blueprint is back Higashi at left wing-back, Arai on the right, Kawabe and Matsumoto inside. The same high-press back-three that dominated the first leg steps out again. Ryo Germain held in reserve — a dangerous impact threat for the second half when Kawasaki push bodies forward chasing the deficit.

League positions, points, goals for and against in this article follow the official J.League final standings (end of Matchday 18, 2026 season). First-leg score, goal timeline, shots and player ratings, plus each team's PI, Edge Score, signature styles and player stats use JPick's database (data provided by API-Football) for the 2026 season. Team tactical identities (possession orientation, back three, high press, etc.) are based on sourced entries in JPick's tactical profiles. Players are listed after confirming their current club (2026-season registration).