V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo VerdyJ1 Round 13 PreviewLast in Chance Creation, Can Verdy Break Nagasaki's Defensive Fortress?

By JPick Data Team Published: 29 October 2026 J1 Round 13 | PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank | Sunday, 1 November 2026 - 14:00 kick-off (local)

V-Varen Nagasaki host 18th-placed Tokyo Verdy in a direct lower-half collision. Nagasaki have conceded just three goals over their last five matches against an npxGA of 5.82 — a significant gap between expected and actual conceding — while Verdy's attack has landed at the foot of J1 in chance creation. The visitors head to Nagasaki under new management, with the same structural offensive problems still unresolved.

Three storylines to watch

1. Nagasaki's defensive efficiency at home — conceding far below their xGA in recent games (→①)
2. Itsuki Someno's goalless run — J1's top-ranked target man by playstyle, yet scoreless in 10 appearances (→②)
3. Kenshin Yasuda's clinical finishing — the mirror image of Verdy's striking crisis (→③)

① Nagasaki's Home Fortress — Conceding Far Below xGA Over Last Five

Nagasaki's home record in the 26-27 season stands at three wins, two draws and one defeat (11 goals for, seven against). The last-five picture is more revealing: against an npxGA of 5.82, they have conceded just three goals — a defensive under-performance of expected conceding metrics that stands out in J1.

At Matchday 11, V-Varen Nagasaki beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 at PEACE STADIUM, limiting the visitors to an npxG of just 1.14. That combination of pressing and organised shape limited Hiroshima's quality of chance as much as their volume.

Midfielder Motoki Hasegawa ranks second in J1 (top 10%) in the link-man forward playstyle — players who drop deep to receive and pull attacks through them — and provides connective tissue for Nagasaki's transitions in both directions.

Norman Campbell has been sidelined with a hamstring injury since 19 September. Nagasaki's record when scoring first (three wins, one draw, zero defeats) underlines how much weight the opening goal carries in these matches.

② Tokyo Verdy's Attacking Crisis — Last in Chance Creation, Striker Without a Goal

Tokyo Verdy's attacking data is comprehensively last in J1. Chance creation averages 6.9 per match (20th of 20), xG per game is 0.9 (19th of 20), and their conversion rate of 8.1% is also 19th. Each figure on its own would be a concern; together they describe a team struggling to manufacture, let alone convert, clear opportunities.

Itsuki Someno is the sharpest illustration. Rated J1's top player in the target-man playstyle (top 5% of the league) — the type who holds up play and becomes the focal point of attacks — he has accumulated 2.1 npxG (non-penalty expected goals, a measure of shot quality created) across ten appearances this season without scoring once. Yuya Fukuda adds another 1.4 npxG from nine games, also without a goal (JPick Database, 26-27 season through MD 12).

The club announced the termination of head coach Hiroshi Jofuku's contract on 6 October, followed by an announcement of a new head coach appointment on 8 October. Under the new management, Verdy's record across four matches stands at one win, one draw and two defeats, with the most recent result a 3–1 victory over Avispa Fukuoka — though that game generated just 1.37 npxG.

Defensively, Tokyo Verdy have conceded eleven goals in their last five matches against an npxGA of 7.54, conceding at a rate above what the quality of opponent chances would predict. Kazuya Miyahara has been out with a cruciate ligament injury since 10 September.

③ Yasuda's Clinical Finishing and Nagasaki's Counter-Attack Threat

The contrast Nagasaki offer in attack is built around Kenshin Yasuda. The midfielder, who joined from Oita Trinita on 6 July, has scored four goals from 1.8 npxG across just seven appearances — the mirror image of Verdy's striking problem.

Someno: 2.1 npxG, zero goals. Yasuda: 1.8 npxG, four goals. Near-identical underlying opportunity — entirely different outcomes.

Thiago Santana has contributed three goals from 3.4 npxG (nine appearances), while Matheus Jesus has scored four times — including one penalty — from 2.2 npxG, posting a match rating of 7.4 across nine games.

The Bottom Line

PEACE STADIUM has seen over 2.5 goals in 63% of matches played there. Against that backdrop, the opening goal carries outsized weight: Nagasaki have gone three wins, one draw and zero defeats when scoring first this season, while both sides have collected zero wins and four defeats when conceding first.

Verdy showed they can score in numbers — three against Fukuoka — but their underlying chance creation has not shifted. Nagasaki's defense has been conceding well below what opponents' npxG would predict. Which of these structural tendencies holds on 1 November is the question the match answers.