Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo OsakaJ1 Matchday 11 Preview | Cerezo's finishing crisistwo goals from 4.27 npxG — runs into Nagoya's perfect Toyota home record

By JPick Data Team Published: 19 October 2026 26-27 season, Matchday 11 | Toyota Stadium | Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · 19:00 kick-off (local)

Nagoya Grampus (J1 12th, 12 pts) arrive on a two-match league winning run, with 57.1% possession (3rd in J1) but a 9% conversion rate that sits 14th. Cerezo Osaka (J1 13th, 12 pts) have managed just two non-penalty goals from an npxG (non-penalty expected goals) of 4.27 across their last five matches — their xG average of 1.0 is 18th in J1. At Toyota Stadium, Nagoya have beaten Cerezo in all seven previous J1 meetings. Whether Cerezo can finally break that record while carrying one of the worst finishing rates in the division is the defining question on Wednesday.

Three things to watch

1. Nagoya hold the ball but cannot convert — a paradox that has run all season
Underlying non-penalty GD −2.55 against an actual figure of −4: an xG gap of −1.45 confirms that Nagoya consistently produce better numbers than the scoreboard reflects. (→ ①)

2. Cerezo's finishing crisis is structural, not a blip
Two non-penalty goals from 4.27 npxG in five games, a season-long xG average of 1.0 (18th in J1), and an away record of W0 D1 L3 with two goals scored and eleven conceded. Cerezo are struggling to create and convert in equal measure. (→ ②)

3. Nagoya have won all seven J1 matches against Cerezo at Toyota Stadium
The broader H2H picture (Nagoya W9 D1 L4 over 14 meetings) reinforces a clear imbalance. A win here would lift either side to 15 points and into the top half of the table. (→ ③)

① Nagoya — third in possession, but 14th in conversion rate

Nagoya sit 12th (12 pts, W4 D0 L6) after ten matchdays. Their recent run reads LLLWW — three defeats, then back-to-back wins against Kashiwa Reysol (3-1 away) and Kawasaki Frontale (2-1 away).

The season-long numbers tell a story of productive possession that has not translated to goals. A 57.1% possession average ranks third in J1; a 9% conversion rate is 14th. Their xG average of 1.2 places them 11th, while a chance-creation rate of 10.3 per game ranks 7th — the ball reaches good positions often enough, but the finish has been missing. The underlying non-penalty GD of −2.55 against an actual −4 produces an xG gap of −1.45, a pattern consistent across all ten league matches.

Defensively, Nagoya have conceded in every game this season. Their npxGA average of 1.45 (11th in J1) is close to the league median, and the five-game figures confirm this: seven non-penalty goals conceded from an npxGA of 6.66 (in line with expectation).

The primary attacking threat comes from Yudai Kimura (FW, 2 goals in 10 apps, npxG 2.4) and Yuya Yamagishi (FW, 2 goals, npxG 1.4). Defensively, Haruya Fujii (DF) is classified as a Ball Winner type in the app's playstyle system and ranks first in J1 in that category (top 2%). Yuya Asano (MF) has been sidelined since 6 September; Marcus Indio (FW) has been absent since March.

② Cerezo — two non-penalty goals from 4.27 npxG in five games

Cerezo Osaka are 13th (12 pts, W3 D3 L4) — level on points with Nagoya, but the underlying numbers point to a wider gap. Their xG average of 1.0 is 18th in J1. The underlying non-penalty GD of −5.96 against an actual −7 gives an xG gap of −1.04, meaning the poor results broadly reflect genuine underlying weakness rather than finishing variance.

The last five league games crystallise the problem. Cerezo generated 4.27 npxG and scored just two non-penalty goals (finishing well below expectation). In the most recent match — a 1-4 home defeat to Kawasaki Frontale — they produced 1.03 npxG and converted once in open play. Away from home the picture is starker: W0 D1 L3, two goals scored, eleven conceded.

The top scorer is Solomon Sakuragawa (FW, 3 goals, 2 np goals, npxG 1.0). Lucas Fernandes (FW) has two goals, both from the penalty spot — his npxG stands at 0.5. Summer signing Pablo Sabbag (FW, joined 10 August) has 0 goals from an npxG of 1.0. Jackson Irvine (joined 5 August) and Javi Hernández (joined 28 August, loan from Leganés) have added options without resolving the conversion problem.

Goh Kambayashi has been absent since 6 May; Masaya Shibayama since 3 August.

③ The Toyota Stadium fortress — a record that shapes the contest

Nagoya have won all seven J1 encounters against Cerezo at Toyota Stadium:

Seven games, 16 goals for, 3 against. Across all 14 H2H meetings, Nagoya are W9 D1 L4. The three most recent include Cerezo's 6-1 away win in May 2026 — but Toyota Stadium has told a different story throughout. The asymmetry is venue-specific.

Nagoya's path to victory runs through their possession dominance: hold the ball, control transitions, and let Haruya Fujii's ball-winning (J1 rank 1st in Ball Winner type, top 2%) limit Cerezo's counter-attacking opportunities. The two consecutive away wins suggest the attack is finding better efficiency than the season averages suggest.

For Cerezo, the path is singular: convert the chances they create. Nagoya have not kept a clean sheet all season, so scoring opportunities will come — the question is whether this side can finally cash in on the npxG they have been generating without reward.

Data outlook

Both teams sit on 12 points, but the underlying non-penalty GDs diverge significantly: Nagoya at −2.55, Cerezo at −5.96. In the last five matches, Nagoya produced six non-penalty goals from 5.41 npxG (in line with expectation); Cerezo managed two from 4.27 (well below). The gap in attacking efficiency is the central variable in this match.

A win for either side means 15 points and a move into the top half. Score probability matrices and full playstyle breakdowns are available in the app.

Data source: JPick Database (26-27 season, through Matchday 10 · as of 19 October 2026)