Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo VerdyJ1 MD14 PreviewDefensive Collapse Meets Managerial Bounce

By JPick Data Team
Published: 6 November 2026
J1 Matchday 14 | IAI Stadium Nihondaira | Saturday, 7 November 2026 — 13:00 kick-off (local)

Shimizu arrive on a three-match J1 losing run; Tokyo Verdy arrive having won two straight since a managerial change. The numbers tell different stories for each side.

Three Things to Watch

1. Shimizu have lost three consecutive J1 matches and conceded 14 goals in their last five — 6.07 more than their npxGA of 7.93 suggests. The defence is in worse shape than the scorelines imply. (→ ①)
2. Target Man Se-hun Oh (J1 2nd for Target Man style) has built up an npxG of 3.0 this season yet has just one non-penalty goal. Can he finally cash in at Nihondaira? (→ ②)
3. Tokyo Verdy announced head coach Hiroshi Jofuku's departure on 6 October. Under new management they have won two consecutive J1 matches (three-match J1 unbeaten run). Itsuki Someno (J1 1st, Target Man) anchors the attack. (→ ③)

① Shimizu's Defensive Collapse — 14 Goals Conceded in Five Matches

Shimizu S-Pulse sit 13th on 14 points after Matchday 13. Their season-long numbers are already poor — an average xGA of 1.7 (J1 19th) and an average possession of 41.5% (J1 20th) — but the recent trend is worse still.

In their last five J1 matches Shimizu conceded 14 goals, against an npxGA of 7.93 — a gap of +6.07. That is a large over-performance in goals conceded relative to chance quality, and it covers the three-game slide of Kyoto (0–2), Hiroshima (0–4), and Machida (0–5). Shimizu have now conceded in six consecutive J1 matches.

There is also a late-game vulnerability to flag. 31.82% of Shimizu's season goals conceded have come in the 76–90-minute window — their heaviest single period of the season. When opponents score first, Shimizu's record reads: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses from five such matches. The opening exchanges will carry a disproportionate weight.

② Se-hun Oh's xG Gap — Finishing Is the Key to Shimizu's Revival

Se-hun Oh joined from Machida Zelvia in July and has become the focal point of Shimizu's attack. He ranks second in J1 for the Target Man style (top 8%), but the numbers are misfiring badly: in 12 appearances his npxG stands at 3.0, yet his non-penalty goal total is just 1 — a shortfall of 2.0.

The issue extends beyond Oh. Ryo Germain, also a summer arrival from Hiroshima, has an xG of 2.3 and zero non-penalty goals. Shimizu's season conversion rate of 7.6% sits last in J1. Across the full season, their non-penalty goals (9) fall 4.4 short of their npxG (13.4).

There is another angle through the wide areas. Tomoya Fujii (Dribbler style, J1 4th, top 10%) provides a direct dribbling threat from the right. His battles against Tokyo Verdy's Aerial Dominator Naoki Hayashi (J1 5th, top 10%) could be one of the defining individual contests of the match.

③ Tokyo Verdy's Back-to-Back Wins — New Manager and Itsuki Someno

Tokyo Verdy are 17th on 11 points, but form has shifted noticeably. On 6 October the club announced the departure of head coach Hiroshi Jofuku, followed two days later by the appointment of a new manager. In the four J1 matches under the new setup — 1 loss, 1 draw, then back-to-back wins against V-Varen Nagasaki (2–1) and Avispa Fukuoka (3–1) — the momentum has visibly changed.

Itsuki Someno leads the front line. He tops J1 for the Target Man style (top 4%) and his npxG of 2.3 represents Tokyo Verdy's best individual chance quality this season. His non-penalty goal tally of one leaves a shortfall of 1.3 — a xG debt, but smaller than Oh's on the other side.

Shuhei Mizoguchi (Crosser style, J1 10th, top 8%) provides crosses from the right; Someno's hold-up play and aerial ability make that combination a natural fit.

Tokyo Verdy's season-long xG gap stands at –2.7, compared with Shimizu's –4.7. In their last five J1 matches, their defence gave up nine non-penalty goals against an npxGA of 8.58 — broadly in line, and in sharp contrast to Shimizu's overrun back line. One further structural note: 36.36% of Tokyo Verdy's goals this season have come in the 76–90-minute window, the same period in which Shimizu are most vulnerable defensively (31.82% of goals conceded).

Recent Form

(W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Oldest left, most recent right)

Head-to-Head (J1 League, last two meetings)

Shimizu have won both recent meetings by 1–0, a record that works in their favour here. Tokyo Verdy face this fixture for the first time under their new manager.

Data Outlook

Both squads display the same asymmetry when it comes to the first goal: when Shimizu score first, their record is 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses; when they concede first, it is 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses. Tokyo Verdy's split is even starker — 2 wins from 2 when scoring first, 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses when conceding first. Whoever takes the lead shapes the match.

Shimizu's outstanding xG debt (Oh's npxG 3.0 against one non-penalty goal), combined with Tokyo Verdy's late-game scoring pattern, makes for a compelling structural tension. The opening exchanges, and who blinks first on the scoresheet, will likely decide which team takes three points and which takes none.

Data: JPick Database, 26-27 season through Matchday 13.